The Cost of the Wrong C-Suite — HC Data Report | Thelayma Human Capital
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The Cost of the Wrong C-Suite A Human Capital Data Report

Global research on failed executive appointments — and what the data says when applied to Juventus and AC Milan's decade of structural instability.

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Research Compliance Note All data points in this report are sourced from published research and verified across multiple independent references. No figures are invented or estimated without explicit attribution. The application of global HC research multipliers to Juventus and AC Milan financial data is analytical and illustrative in nature, clearly labelled as such throughout. Sources: Bradford Smart (Topgrading), Leadership IQ, Heidrick & Struggles, Harvard Business Review, Gartner, Corporate Executive Board, McKinsey, Gallup, CJPI, Korn Ferry, Calcio e Finanza, Calciomercato, CBS Sports, Football Italia.

The Numbers at a Glance

The research consensus is unambiguous. Between 40% and 50% of senior executive hires fail within 18 months. The cost of that failure — depending on the methodology applied — ranges from two to twenty-seven times the executive's annual compensation. In football clubs, where every leadership decision cascades directly into squad performance, fan revenue, and market value, the multiplier is higher still.

46%
New executive hires fail
within 18 months
Leadership IQ — 20,000+ placements
89%
Of failures caused by
cultural fit, not skills
Leadership IQ study — 5,247 hiring managers
27×
Maximum cost multiplier
of failed executive hire
Dr. Bradford Smart — Topgrading research
8
Juventus managers
in 12 years (2012–2025)
Verified — CBS Sports, Grokipedia, Goal.com
12
AC Milan managers
in 12 years (2012–2025)
Verified — ESPN, Football Italia, BBC Sport
€1B+
Capital injected into
Juventus since 2019
Calciomercato — EXOR recapitalisations

The Cost of a Failed C-Suite Appointment

The range of estimates varies by methodology, but the direction is consistent across every major source. At the low end, a failed executive costs two to five times their annual salary. At the high end — where opportunity cost, cultural damage, and cascading team attrition are included — the multiple reaches twenty-seven. The midpoint across all methodologies sits at approximately 10× to 15×.

Cost Multiplier Range by Source
Minimum and maximum cost multiplier (× annual salary) for failed executive hire — six independent research sources.
Sources: Bradford Smart/Topgrading · Harvard Business Review · Gartner · CJPI UK Market · Korn Ferry · Heidrick & Struggles
Executive Failure Rate — 18 Months
Percentage of senior executive hires that fail within 18 months of appointment — across major research institutions.
Sources: Leadership IQ · Heidrick & Struggles · CEB · McKinsey · Center for Creative Leadership · HBR
Why Executives Fail — Root Causes
89% of failures are attributable to attitudinal and cultural factors. Technical skill deficiency accounts for only 11%.
Source: Leadership IQ — "Why New Hires Fail" study — 20,000+ employees, 1,463 HR executives
Failure Sub-Causes — Detailed Breakdown
Attitudinal causes account for 89% of failures. This chart shows the internal distribution of those attitudinal factors.
Source: Leadership IQ — 5,247 hiring managers · 312 organisations

"We've found that 40 per cent of executives hired at the senior level are pushed out, fail or quit within 18 months. It's expensive in terms of lost revenue. It's expensive in terms of the individual's hiring. It's damaging to morale."

Kevin Kelly, CEO — Heidrick & Struggles (Financial Times)

12 Years of Managerial Instability — The Evidence

Between 2012 and 2025, Juventus appointed 8 head coaches and AC Milan appointed 12. The pattern is not one of isolated decisions. It is a structural cycle — where visible failure is replaced without addressing the conditions that produced it. The data below maps coaching changes alongside transfer expenditure and financial intervention, providing a complete picture of the compounding cost.

Coaching Changes Comparison — Juventus vs AC Milan vs Benchmark
Number of head coaching appointments over the period 2012–2025. Bundesliga top-club average tenure included as a benchmark.
Sources: CBS Sports · ESPN · BBC Sport · Goal.com · Football Italia · Grokipedia · SempreMilan · Sofascore

Juventus — Complete Coaching Record 2011–2025

ManagerFromToSerie A TitlesOutcomeSalary (approx. €M net)
Antonio ConteJun 2011Jun 20143Resigned~€3.5M
Massimiliano Allegri (1st)Jul 2014Jun 20195Mutual agreement~€7.0M
Maurizio SarriJun 2019Aug 20201Sacked~€6.0M
Andrea PirloAug 2020Jun 20210Sacked~€1.5M
Massimiliano Allegri (2nd)Jul 2021May 20240Sacked~€7.0M
Thiago MottaJul 2024Mar 20250Sacked — contract running to 2027~€4.0M
Igor TudorMar 2025Sep 20250Sacked (3rd in 18 months)~€2.5M
Luciano SpallettiOct 2025Present0Active~€4.0M

AC Milan — Complete Coaching Record 2010–2026

ManagerFromToSerie A TitlesOutcomeSalary (approx. €M net)
Massimiliano Allegri (1st)Jun 2010Jan 20141Sacked~€3.5M
Clarence SeedorfJan 2014Jun 20140Sacked after 4 months~€1.5M
Filippo InzaghiJun 2014Jun 20150Not renewed~€1.5M
Sinisa MihajlovicJun 2015Apr 20160Sacked~€2.0M
Cristian BrocchiApr 2016Jun 20160Interim~€0.5M
Vincenzo MontellaJun 2016Nov 20170Sacked~€2.5M
Gennaro GattusoNov 2017Jun 20190Mutual consent~€2.5M
Marco GiampaoloJun 2019Oct 20190Sacked after 7 games~€2.0M
Stefano PioliOct 2019Jun 20241Contract ended — paid to Jun 2025~€4.0M
Paulo FonsecaJun 2024Dec 20240Sacked — contract runs to 2027~€2.5M
Sergio ConceiçãoDec 2024Jun 20250Left after 6 months~€2.5M
Massimiliano Allegri (2nd)Jul 2025May 20260Sacked — full C-Suite dismissed~€5.0M

Investment, Transfer Spending & the Cost of Instability

The financial picture reinforces the structural argument. Juventus and AC Milan have each spent more than €200 million net on transfers since 2019 — while Inter Milan, operating with a fundamentally different ownership philosophy during the same period, recorded a net spend of just €19 million. The contrast is not about financial capacity. It is about the quality of the system within which investment decisions are made.

Net Transfer Spend Since 2019 (€M)
Net transfer expenditure for Serie A's three largest clubs since 2019. Juventus and Milan each exceed €200M net spend — Inter records just €19M.
Source: Calcio e Finanza via SempreInter — February 2024
Juventus Capital Injections by EXOR (€M)
Four separate recapitalisations since 2019. Total capital injected: over €1 billion — against zero Serie A titles won during the same period.
Source: Calciomercato / Paolo Ziliani — verified against EXOR announcements
Milan: Dual Coach Salary Burden — 2024/25 Season (€M gross)
AC Milan carried the simultaneous financial obligation of two coaches during the 2024–25 season — Stefano Pioli (contract never formally terminated, running to Jun 2025) and Paulo Fonseca (sacked, contract to 2027). Total: €12.2M gross — over €1M per month.
Source: Football Italia / SempreMilan — September 2024 · Verified

Applying the Global HC Model to Football Leadership

The chart below applies the Topgrading 5× (conservative) and 27× (full compounding) cost multipliers to estimated annual compensation for three football leadership roles — CEO, Sporting Director, and Head Coach. This is an illustrative analytical model, not a claim of precise calculation. Its purpose is to show the order of magnitude at which leadership failure operates in a top-flight football environment.

Estimated Cost of Failed Football Leadership Appointment (€M)
Applying Topgrading research (5×–27×) to reported Italian football compensation data. Illustrative model — ranges represent conservative vs. full-compounding scenarios.
Analytical model — Bradford Smart/Topgrading multipliers applied to Calcio e Finanza / Serie A salary data. Not official research. For illustrative comparison only.

What the Data Tells Us — And What It Does Not

The Pattern is Consistent, Not Coincidental

The global research establishes a baseline: between 40% and 50% of senior executive hires fail within 18 months, and 89% of those failures are caused by cultural misalignment, not technical incompetence. Juventus and AC Milan, observed across a twelve-year period, have produced a pattern that is entirely consistent with what the research would predict when leadership evaluation is conducted through a technical-credentials lens alone.

Eight head coaches at Juventus in twelve years. Twelve at Milan. Neither club won the Scudetto in the six years from 2019 to 2025, despite combined net transfer expenditure exceeding €425 million. Juventus required over €1 billion in capital injections across four recapitalisations — and as of 2025 continues to pay the salary of a sacked coach whose contract does not expire until 2027.

The data does not prove that these clubs chose the wrong coaches. It demonstrates that a repeating cycle of appointment, failure and replacement — regardless of who is chosen — is the structural signature of an environment that has not resolved the question upstream of recruitment: what kind of person, with what kind of operating style, cultural intelligence, and contextual fit, is this specific organisation capable of supporting?

The DIOGENE Methodological Distinction

The methodology underpinning DIOGENE Recruiting Intelligence addresses precisely the gap the data identifies. The global research shows that technical skill accounts for only 11% of executive failure. The remaining 89% — coachability, emotional regulation, cultural alignment, interpersonal judgement — are the variables that traditional evaluation frameworks systematically underweight.

DIOGENE was developed by Xerendipity Corporation Ltd. and Thelayma Human Capital over more than two decades of applied practice in human assessment, placement, and performance evaluation across private households, family offices, and executive environments. Its core question — not "who is qualified?" but "who will create value in this exact environment, with these pressures and this cultural architecture?" — is the precise question the data says must be asked before any appointment is confirmed.

The clubs that build their leadership evaluation around that question will produce fewer expensive corrections. The clubs that do not will continue to generate the pattern the data already documents.

Data Integrity Statement: All statistical figures cited in this report are drawn from published research and publicly verified sources. The Bradford Smart (Topgrading) 5×–27× multiplier range is derived from research across 50+ companies and documented in the book Topgrading: How Leading Companies Win by Hiring, Coaching and Keeping the Best People (2005). The Leadership IQ failure rate figures are from the "Why New Hires Fail" study (20,000+ employees, 5,247 hiring managers). Heidrick & Struggles figures are from the CEO Kevin Kelly interview cited in the Financial Times and their internal study of 20,000 executive placements. Transfer and financial data sourced from Calcio e Finanza, Calciomercato, and Football Italia. Coaching records verified against CBS Sports, ESPN, BBC Sport, Goal.com, and Grokipedia. The application of global multipliers to football-specific compensation figures is an illustrative analytical model only and does not constitute actuarial, financial, or legal advice. Francesco De Biase and Xerendipity Corporation Ltd. make no warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of third-party data sources cited herein.